For the first time since the first week of November—coincidentally, just before Donald Trump’s US election victory—the daily chart for Bitcoin has shown three consecutive red candles.
When three or more red candles appear on the daily chart, Bitcoin often retests the 50-day exponential moving average level. Since its all-time high, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by more than 15%. One analyst has speculated that the worst of the slump may be behind the biggest cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin Downturn Traders Forecast Reversal
An independent crypto trader named Captain Faibik predicted that Bitcoin’s downturn was coming to an end on December 20 when the price of BTC fell below $93,000. A trader pointed out in an X post that the present drop in Bitcoin’s price is caused by a huge negative divergence between the price and relative strength index (RSI) during the last month. Typically, a decline of 8–10% follows such divergences as a normal reset. From the $94,000 range, the trader anticipated a price bounce, as shown in the chart. As a matter of fact, mystery crypto trader Cold Blooded Shiller anticipated a more substantial Bitcoin downturn based on the identical divergence pattern.
According to the trader, Bitcoin’s current price activity is reminiscent of January 2024, and if the same thing happens, the sell-off might go all the way down to $85,000. Analysts from the futures market Byzantine General have been pointing out the spot holders’ relentless selling activity. “Spot is selling off so much it’s disconnecting from the derivatives market,” the analyst explained, before adding. We actually got a perp premium at the moment. This is the most selling activity at Coinbase since Bitcoin was priced at $66,000, according to Maartunn an analyst at Crypto Quant. The Coin base premium hit a new quarterly low as selling pressure intensifies.
Bitcoin Faces Growing Selling Pressure as Realized Losses Surge
Realized loss volume also reached a weekly high, reflecting the growing selling pressure by the hour. Bitcoin on-chain researcher Axel Adler Jr. brought attention to the fact that BTC realized losses for the previous five days reached $28.9 million, which is 320% higher than the weekly average in 2024. So far this year, just ten numbers have surpassed 28 million.
There was a bearish break of structure (BOS) while looking at Bitcoin’s mid-term chart. But if Bitcoin keeps closing its daily candle over $95,000, it’s evident that a reversal isn’t happening. The data shows that following a dip to $92,777, the 4-hour candle has quickly recovered and is now above $95,000. Bitcoin needs a daily candlestick close above $95,000 to counteract the negative mood.
Final Thoughts
Many analysts and traders have conflicting views in response to Bitcoin’s recent decline. Selling pressure is increasing in the market, and mid-term charts show a bearish break of structure in addition to large realized losses. Still, there are investors who think Bitcoin’s worst may be over; they see reversal signals, such as the price staying over $95,000, as evidence. The price and relative strength index (RSI) are becoming increasingly disconnected, suggesting a potential reset, but the future remains uncertain. The market’s trajectory is dependent on Bitcoin’s reaction to persistent selling forces, but if it can close above key support levels, it might prevent any declines.
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